dreamsofahero | [CFUD] Cry Wolf 138

Kara Zor-El is the safe sheep. Please keep this to yourself until at least after ousting today. We can organize more after that.

*nods*

That's the one who was assigned the name Colonel Mustard, correct? In that case she wasn't one of the ones I had been considering casting suspicion on, at least.

Can you tell me who you were suspicious of?

It's less a matter of finding anyone suspicious so much as eliminating those I have reason to believe aren't. For now I'll assume that you, me, and the one in the clue are all sheep, to begin with. I've spoken with Sano- Mrs. White, by the code names- and while I can't be certain, he at least hasn't given me reason to suspect him so far. It seems reasonable to assume that "Reverend Green" is also a sheep for now, as she's seemed to be highly interested in finding clues. That or a particularly cunning wolf.

From what I spoke with "Miss Peach", he seemed to dislike the idea of deceiving anyone, and while that doesn't rule him out, it makes him a potentially less effective wolf.

That leaves, then, Gray, Peacock, Scarlett, Brunette, Azure, and Rose to choose from. Simply going by apparent behavior and participation so far, I was considering choosing between Brunette, Azure, and Rose initially.

Rose was the only person who didn't want the sheep clue kept private. That could be that she actually is that lazy and did not realize the rules of the game well, but she is the only one so far who has done something suspicious.

Insisting this is too much work could be a cover.

Exactly. Or, if she is a sheep, it's likely that she still won't be as inclined to help later.

I don't wish to vote out a sheep just because they aren't helpful enough.

Not if it's possible to vote for a wolf, of course not. But if there end up being two sheep up for vote, wouldn't you rather keep the sheep that are willing to participate? Working as a team is rather vital, after all.

It is. Especially for sheep.

Exactly. So at this point, without more to go on, it's probably best to vote for whoever seems most suspicious, and failing that, whoever isn't contributing to the effort.

I did vote for her. It's still the best I can do for now.

*nods*

Likewise. Although now I wonder if I shouldn't have voted for one of the people who doesn't appear to be around right now...

It's better to vote for people who are around, if you can. There is more to work with. Even if they're sheep, they give other people something to react to, and they can make arguments that might come in handy later.

Perhaps, but if someone isn't around now, how do we know they'll be around later?

It's different. Later there will be clues.

Well, I suppose for now it's just a matter of waiting and seeing.

Though now that we're choosing someone to oust, any thoughts between the two of them?

I don't know enough about Peach to say...

He did sound earlier as though he disliked the idea of lying to people, but...

The wolves took her this time. Do you think it was simple blind luck, or that they found out?

I have to play as though they know. The first round, they took a player who hadn't been active at all. Kara had been, though, so either they changed their strategy or they had a reason to eat her now.

If they were trying to eat someone threatening, then either she knew something, or they knew her role.

I was speaking with her, as well as with the only other person who knew about the safe sheep. She didn't sound like she had any idea who any of the wolves were, so I doubt it was that... so unless they chose randomly, or someone gave it away, that would imply one of the three of us who knew is really a wolf.

Four. We told Superboy as well. She said she trusted him and wanted to bring him in too.

Oh? But he was in the latest clue as well, and unless we want to assume that we happened to vote out a wolf in the very first round, that means that he is, indeed, a sheep.

Also, in the interest of saying this now rather than having to argue it later when time is more critical, Sano can attest to the fact that I refused to tell him the identity of the safe sheep, even though he's given me every reason to believe he's a sheep, himself. I can't say whether or not Tiffany is a wolf- honestly, I think there's a decent chance the wolves simply were very lucky- but I certainly am not. Whether you believe me is of course up to you, but now you'll have time to consider it before making a decision, if it comes to it.

But in any case, I think it's best at the moment to wait and see what today's clue may hold, if anything, rather than risk becoming overly paranoid over what may be sheer coincidence. Division between the sheep is exactly what would work in the wolves' favor, after all.

You know how saying that makes you look?

I'm aware. But the last thing the sheep need is for two or three of us to be arguing over who's more suspicious at a time when attention ought to be on a clue. Also, this way, I can't go back on what I've said to make myself look better between now on then, as you'll be watching my moves more closely, won't you?

But suppose, for instance, that the wolves simply were lucky, and all of us really are sheep... I can only imagine how much they'd laugh if we suddenly all turned on each other. Which is why I'm not accusing either of the others of being a wolf; I have no real reason to.

I'm not accusing anyone!

I never said you were. And unless Kara herself told someone and didn't mention it to any of us, then we have to assume it was probably chance, for now.

[makes an unhappy, grumbly noise]

If nothing else, it may be useful in the end. When we do see who the next clue is, and who's left after that, it might be useful still.

*nods*

Right. Though do you think it was Scarlett who was the wolf, or that we got lucky in the first round?

It's more likely it was Scarlett, but I can't say it absolutely was not Rose. Voting for her wasn't entirely random. She could have been a very inexperienced wolf.

Well, it's not impossible that they were both wolves, if quite improbable.

We can't count on being that lucky.

Of course not, though we can't rule out the possibility. In any case, it's probably best to wait and focus on whatever clue we receive today.

So who do you have in mind?

Peach. Ever since last night's ousting I'd been considering him, to tell you the truth. Especially since Peacock has generally been fairly helpful in deciphering the clues, and was one of the first to vote on Scarlett last night, even before it was clear that voting was going to swing that direction. Peach, on the other hand, has been fairly unpredictable. And while he said at the beginning he didn't like the idea of deceiving anyone, I imagine. his other self is quite capable of it.

Incidentally, regardless of who the wolf is this time, that leaves only you, Sano, and Tiffany for the third wolf, assuming we didn't oust one the first night. As I've been collaborating with both the other two in private, it seemed safer to give my opinion here where neither can see it.

That's... fair. I'm not sure about him.

I'm not totally sure what to make of your clue yet. You and Peacock have voted about the same, and Peach was with you yesterday He didn't have to vote the first day, so there's nothing to compare then...

*nods*

Frankly, I don't know much about either of them, but since I suspected something like this might happened, I'd already been considering both, and concluded that Peach seems to be the less reliable. At the very least, it's impossible to tell whether or not he's truly lying or simply oblivious if his other self is involved somehow...

Anyway, I'm going to tell this to you and only you, so if I'm ousted or eaten, do with it what you will. Since there's reason to believe you're a sheep, as you received that first clue, you may want to share it with someone else you implicitly trust, in case the remaining wolf or wolves does target you tonight.

These are my suspicions regarding Sano and Tiffany.

Sano has given me no particular reason to suspect him, nor any reason not to. Though frankly, were he actually a wolf, I almost would have expected him to favor taking me out immediately. Not so much as to eliminate a threat, but... *shrugs, there IS an ongoing prank war in their cabin, after all* He did mention early on that while he wasn't sure he could trust me, he was going to need me as I was the only one he knew in the game, which may support an argument that he's a sheep. On the other hand, he's been absent a fair bit, and not talking to me as often as I'd expect if he were a sheep and seeking advice or input on how to vote. It isn't proof, as he could simply be slacking off, but it's something to consider.

Tiffany I don't know as well, but she's often seemed to be suspicious of any suggestion put forth, and generally doesn't commit to a course of action very quickly. She also voted for Azure in the last ousting, which could have been an honest mistake, but it's hard to be certain. I did ask her to agree to not to spread information about the safe sheep, which she agreed to and said that she didn't tell anyone when Kara was targeted anyway. Really, I'd rather have a little more to go on to make a decision either way.

[CFUD] Cry Wolf 138 - Ion

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